Tuesday, June 09, 2015

The National Election in Turkey

According to a report by "The Economist", the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received 42% of the vote in the national election on June 7. Consequently, AKP will likely fail at obtaining passage of legislation that converts the current system of government into a presidential system. Although such a system is not necessarily inappropriate, it might encourage Erdogan to transform Turkey into a Middle-Eastern version of Russia.

Understanding the risk that Turkey might become an autocracy under Erdogan, a significant percentage of Turks voted against the AKP. This electoral outcome increases the probability that Turkey will be admitted into the European Union (EU).

What would increase the probability even more is Ankara's helping Kiev to crush the Kremlin-backed militants in eastern Ukraine. Suppose that Turkish soldiers wearing uniforms without insignias indicating their country of origin (1) entered eastern Ukraine, (2) slaughtered the Ukrainian militants and the Russian "volunteer" soldiers, and (3) captured several of the Russian officers in or near Ukraine (on the Russian side of the border). Such Turkish intervention would solve a significant problem for the EU and, hence, would win European votes for Turkish membership in the EU.

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